President Trump to CNBC: China is going to make a deal because ‘they’re going to have to’

           

https://disqus.com/home/d...ing_to_have_to/

"China is going to make a deal because ‘they’re going to have to"

That is actually a closer reality than most may realize.
The Chinese import picture is where to look for evidence of this and in May they had a $18 billion decrease in imports......with the understanding that monthly economic numbers vary from month to month, sometimes fairly significantly......but the YOY numbers point to a picture of decreasing domestic consumption.
In other words, the Chinese economy is slowing down.
They are an export dependent economy, granted, but they are just as susceptible to economic downturns as the rest of us...and domestic consumption is a leading indicator of that.
They may drag this trade dispute through the election and hope Trump doesn't get re-elected....but if he does, they will be in a weaker bargaining position economically.
https://disq.us/url?url=h...p;cuid=3677626" rel="nofollow noopener" title="https://www.bloomberg.com/n" target="_blank" class='link_art' rel='nofollow' >https://www.bloomberg.com...bloomberg.com/n...
https://disq.us/url?url=h...p;cuid=3677626" rel="nofollow noopener" title="https://tradingeconomics.co" target="_blank" class='link_art' rel='nofollow' >https://tradingeconomics....ingeconomics.co...


The Chinese have no interest in making a deal with Trump, even if he adds the last $300 billion tranche, they will wait him out right into 2020. They will for several reasons, we run a deficit with China, they are the largest manufacturer of mid level products and the Chinese workers have a lower cost of living than in the US. Trump, for sure, in his arrogance will push the final level of tariffs on the Chinese. Since Q4 2018, there has been a down trend in the US economic indexes that track the affect on our exports, that means possible job loss, added to already higher consumer prices


To me, and judging by what's happening with Huawei, they chose instead to speed up their plan to create a positive China brand and investment in tech.
5G proved they're able to do it, they started behind the US and Europe and surpassed everyone in terms of tech and costs in many areas. I don't dispute they stole tech, so did and does the US on a regualr basis, even steals from allies, so.. It doesnt' seem farfetched to me that the Chinese steals from the US and the EU.

As for Huawei, they decided to become more independent from external suppliers in areas they had decided no to invest so much till now (i.e. CPUs), they have decided that the cost of investing in tech and manufacturing of these items is worth it now that they are being threatened with being left with no supplier thus risking the future of their whole company. Huwaei has recently became the company that submited more patent requests in the world, the trend is probably to keep on.

In short, it seems to me that the US just pushed too hard this time and the strategy backfired.

As a sidenote. I've read that China warned some large corporations that if they, without proper reasoning, decide to cut ties with Chinese companies, that there will be consequences... so I guess this is just starting.



President Trump is disrupting the system and I love it. What is funny is that globalists and people who care about the importance of the US on a world scale should love it too because everything he is doing is to make sure we are still the strongest country in the world.

The way things were heading with the US entering TPP and Paris Climate Accord, all we were during was staying pat while other countries got stronger. This President is doing what he can to buck that trend.

To draw a comparison, it's what the Toronto Raptors did this season. They could have kept the same roster together, kept their coach that has guided them to the top of the Eastern Conference. Instead, they fired their coach and took a risk trading for a superstar player who may leave after one year. The end result of those moves? They may finally win a title instead of just doing "well" in the Eastern Conference Playoffs.


China doesn't need the US at all. China has the rest of the world to trade with, which they are doing aggressively. Trump already made them the preeminent trade partner in Asia when he bailed out of the TPP and gave them 32 billion in trade at the expense of the US economy. China has a long term plan in place for global economic domination that they are following relentlessly while America slides into isolationist insignificance under Trump. Trump's plans don't extend beyond the next popularity poll. China is willing to let people starve to achieve their goals. Is America?


From the CNBC interview, Trump - 'Recent 25% tariff increase on China imports and final $300 billion tariff tranche is hurting China, not the US'
then came - Reiterates view the Fed should cut rates; Fed raised interest rates too fast, he doesn't like quantitative tightening
confused ? why cut rates when inflation is low, unemployment at a 45 year low, and most economic indexes still trending up. now I said most, gee could it be his advisors are pushing this, to soften the blow from the China tariffs ? yes given that the economic indexes most affected by a tariff war have been in a downtrend since Q4 2018 ?


+